The Basel II framework strictly defines the conditions under which financial institutions are authorized to accept real estate as collateral in order to decrease their credit risk. A widely used concept for its valuation is the hedonic approach. It assumes, that a property can be characterized...

For numerous applications it is of interest to provide full probabilistic forecasts, which are able to assign probabilities to each predicted outcome. Therefore, attention is shifting constantly from conditional mean models to probabilistic distributional models capturing location, scale, shape...

Structured additive regression (STAR) models provide a flexible framework for modeling possible nonlinear effects of covariates: They contain the well established frameworks of generalized linear models (GLM) and generalized additive models (GAM) as special cases but also allow a wider class of...

Models with structured additive predictor provide a very broad and rich framework for complex regression modeling. They can deal simultaneously with nonlinear covariate effects and time trends, unit- or cluster-specific heterogeneity, spatial heterogeneity and complex interactions between...

Gaussian Structured Additive Regression provides a flexible framework for additive decomposition of the expected value with nonlinear covariate effects and time trends, unit- or cluster-specific heterogeneity, spatial heterogeneity, and complex interactions between covariates of different types....

Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in the past two decades. With the constant rise of computational power even very complex models can be estimated on virtually any modern computer. Moreover, interest has shifted from conditional mean models to probabilistic distributional models...

Regressionsanalysen sind von Konfundierungseffekten betroffen, wenn Drittvariablen gleichzeitig mit Zielgrößen und Kovariablen korreliert sind. Klassische Regressionsmodelle sind in diesen Fällen nicht in der Lage, Kovariablen- und Drittvariableneffekte voneinander zu unterscheiden. Die...

Probabilistic forecasts provided by numerical ensemble prediction systems have systematic errors and are typically underdispersive. This is especially true over complex topography with extensive terrain induced small-scale effects which cannot be resolved by the ensemble system. To alleviate...