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This chapter presents historical evidence about Swedish stock prices, dividends, and yields on government fixed-interest securities. Monthly returns are presented since 1901 for stocks, since 1874 for government long-term bonds and since 1856 for short-term Treasury bills or central bank...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010360953
This chapter presents historical evidence about Swedish stock prices, dividends, and yields on government fixed-interest securities. Monthly returns are presented since 1901 for stocks, since 1874 for government long-term bonds and since 1856 for short-term Treasury bills or central bank...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391440
Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) show that (i) lagged forward rates improve the predictability of annual bond returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344936
A small but ambitious literature uses affine arbitrage-free models to estimate jointly U.S. Treasury term premiums and the term structure of equity risk premiums. Within this approach, this paper identifies the parameter restrictions that are consistent with a simple dividend discount model,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010222892
We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705391
Recent findings on the term structure of equity and bond yields pose serious challenges to existing models of … dynamics of equity and bond yields (and their yield spreads). The movements of equity and bond yields are driven mainly by … returns/yields and nominal bond returns/yields switched from positive to negative after the late 1990s, owing mainly to a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013193433
Equilibrium bond-pricing models rely on inflation being bad news for future growth to generate upward-sloping nominal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864574
Some key features in the historical dynamics of U.S. Treasury bond yields-a trend in long-term yields, business cycle …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012201422
Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012425011
A convenience yield represents a difference between yield on a safe bond and yield on a synthetic safe bond …, constructed by combining a risky bond with a CDS contract. We explain the shapes of eurozone sovereign convenience curves using a … model in which arbitrageurs face higher funding costs on bonds with credit risk and bond demand shocks induce funding risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013373329