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This paper presents a set of probability density functions for Euribor outturns in three months’ time, estimated from the prices of options on Euribor futures. It is the first official and freely available dataset to span the complete history of Euribor futures options, thus comprising over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008901645
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
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We study discretizations of polynomial processes using finite state Markov processes satisfying suitable moment matching conditions. The states of these Markov processes together with their transition probabilities can be interpreted as Markov cubature rules. The polynomial property allows us to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011626304
This paper describes a method for computing risk-neutral density functions based on the option-implied volatility smile …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010404081
that the resulting implied volatility curves provide an accurate approximation for a wide range of strike prices. Based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506359
The price of a European option can be computed as the expected value of the payoff function under the risk-neutral measure. For American options and path-dependent options in general, this principle cannot be applied. In this paper, we derive a model-free analytical formula for the implied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532229
-stochastic volatility (LSV) model. Despite their complexity, autocallable structured notes are the most traded equity-linked exotic …, the commonly-used local volatility (LV) model is overly simplified for pricing and risk management. Given its ability to … match the implied volatility smile and reproduce its realistic dynamics, the LSV model is, in contrast, better suited for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013491888
We apply a two-step strategy to forecast the dynamics of the volatility surface implicit in option prices to all …-post volatility of the minimum-variance portfolio is lower when compared with the equal-weighted portfolio and a minimum …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014235957