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In this paper we consider two cases of pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit statistical arbitrage method. We use a simulation-based Bayesian procedure for predicting stable ratios, defined in a cointegration model, of pairs of stock prices. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010259626
In observational studies, the estimation of a treatment effect on an outcome of interest is often done by controlling on a set of pre-treatment characteristics (covariates). This yields an unbiased estimator of the treatment effect when the assumption of unconfoundedness holds, that is, there...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003843327
We propose a fast approximate Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for large data sets embedded in a design based approach. Here, the loglikelihood ratios involved in the Metropolis-Hastings acceptance step are considered as data. The building block is one single subsample from the complete data set,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566817
Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011809478
This paper deals with nonparametric inference for second order stochastic dominance of two random variables. If their distribution functions are unknown they have to be inferred from observed realizations. Thus, any results on stochastic dominance are influenced by sampling errors. We establish...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008992397
Economists are often interested in estimating averages with respect to distributions of unobservables. Examples are moments of individual fixed-effects, average partial effects in discrete choice models, and counterfactual simulations in structural models. For such quantities, we propose and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012295267
Economists are often interested in estimating averages with respect to distributions of unobservables. Examples are moments of individual fixed-effects, average effects in discrete choice models, or counterfactual simulations in structural models. For such quantities, we propose and study...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012063813
Economists are often interested in estimating averages with respect to distributions of unobservables, such as moments of individual fixed-effects, or average partial effects in discrete choice models. For such quantities, we propose and study posterior average effects (PAE), where the average...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617686
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009544514
This paper picks up on a model developed by Philipov and Glickman (2006) for modeling multivariate stochastic volatility via Wishart processes. MCMC simulation from the posterior distribution is employed to fit the model. However, erroneous mathematical transformations in the full conditionals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009737530