empirical practice of omitting dividend growth from the system amounts to imposing the extra restriction that dividend growth is … not persistent. We highlight that persistence in dividend growth induces a previously overlooked channel for return … predictability, which we label "dividend momentum." Compared to estimation based on ordinary least squares, our restricted …

/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast … business cycle, with expected returns increasing in recessions. We also find that, except for the period after 1945, dividend … yields predict dividend growth rates …