aligns with extant measures of disagreement (e.g., analyst forecast dispersion), but is a significantly stronger predictor of … disagreement and future returns. A decile spread portfolio that is short stocks with high forecast disagreement and long stocks …

We test whether forecast bias affects household stock trading by combining measures of bias elicited in laboratory … experiments with administrative trade-level data. On average, subjects exhibit positive forecast bias (i.e., extrapolators), while … a large minority exhibit negative forecast bias (i.e., contrarians). Forecast bias is positively associated with past …

method might be regarded as a quite accurate way of how traders identify patterns and forecast prices in reality. The …

examined and described quantitatively. Third, since some ability to forecast future changes in the underlying asset is detected …