We show that the weak Pareto law, as used to characterize the tail behaviour of income distributions, implies regularly varying tail probabilities, but that the reverse implication does not hold. We also establish implications among other versions of the weak Pareto law.

The contribution of this paper is to show how the balance of risk for various macro variables can be linked to inflation uncertainty. Inflation uncertainty is derived from uncertainty in the macro variables that are deemed to be important for future inflation. The paper focuses on the technical...

Various economic theories are available to explain the existence of credit and default cycles. There remains empirical ambiguity, however, as to whether or these cycles coincide. Recent papers_new suggest by their empirical research set-up that they do, or at least that defaults and credit...

Causal inference in the empirical sciences is based on counterfactuals. This paper presents the counterfactual account of causation in terms of Lewis's possible-world semantics, and reformulates the statistical potential outcome framework and its underlying assumptions using counterfactual...

Climate-related foreign aid is on the rise, with signatories to the Paris Climate agreement pledging US$100 billion annually to promote mitigation and adaptation in recipient countries. While this seems like a welcome development, we have little evidence that climate aid actually encourages...

The contribution of this paper is to derive a bivariate distribution for inflation and output uncertainty with a well-defined role for subjective judgements. The marginal distributions for inflation and output growth are derived from uncertainty in the macro variables that are deemed to be...