uncertainty is proxied by the (unobserved) volatility of the structural shocks, and a regime change occurs whenever credit …

access to credit to one characterized by tight credit whenever the bond risk premium exceeds a critical threshold. US …

account impacts from oil price return and oil price volatility on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression …

discourages short-term inflows mainly through portfolio risk and precautionary saving channels. A markup channel generates net FDI … irreversibility of FDI, the currency of export invoicing, risk aversion of outside agents, and effective lower bound in the rest of …

This paper proposes Spillover Persistence as a measure for financial fragility. The volatility paradox predicts that … fragility builds up when volatility is low, which challenges existing measures. Spillover Persistence tackles this challenge by … exploring a novel dimension of systemic risk: loss dynamics. I document that Spillover Persistence declines when fragility …