Caldara, Dario; Iacoviello, Matteo - 2018
risk rose dramatically during the World War I and World War II, was elevated in the early 1980s, and has drifted upward …We present a monthly indicator of geopolitical risk based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical … tensions, and examine its evolution and effects since 1985. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the Gulf War, after …