The Phillips curve has been in the focus of many key debates in macroeconomics ever since Samuelson and Solow (1960) modified the original curve in linking the unemployment rate to the inflation rate. This essay analyzes the links of the modern discussion to the debates over time highlighting...

We propose a simple modification of the time series filter by Hamilton (2018b) that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8-quarter ahead forecasts errors of an autoregression. While this approach yields a cyclical component of...