We present an extension of the Goodwin growth-cycle model that considers the rate of capacity utilization as a new variable in an adapted Lotka-Volterra system of differential equations. We derive a differential equation for the capacity utilization that is proportional to the difference between...

The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...