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We revisit the question whether U.S. fiscal policy in the pre-Volcker period was active or passive. To determine the policy stance, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior evaluation. In contrast to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012309706
across the sample. Evidence in favour of a diminishing effect of oil price shocks on the output and inflation is found from … in the last part of the 1990s and, especially, for the CPI inflation in the 2000s. The most outstanding result is that … the oil price movements could explain at least some of the recent inflation, the main difference between these outcomes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011575575
inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint …, we show that an inflation bias as well as a deflationary bias exist as a steady-state outcome. We assess the predictions … of this model using unique individual-level inflation expectations data across nine countries that allow for a direct …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012317310
This paper focuses on the empirically observed relationship between demographic change and inflation and explores the … demographic change and inflation dynamics. We are the first to formally disentangle the two components of demographic change …: population size and structure, and determine how they separately affect inflation. We find that changes in population size are a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012265487
published data. The underlying effect rests on overstated inflation estimates due to imputed prices for disappearing goods and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012437529
Inflation and earnings growth can push some tax payers into higher brackets in the absence of inflation …-indexed schedules. Moreover, inflation may affect the composition of individuals’ income sources. As a result, depending on the relative … tax burden of labor and capital, inflation may decrease or increase the difference between before and after-tax income …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012314680
commiting to keep interest rates low at the exit of the liquidity trap, to stabilize inflation today. 2. From debt … consolidated budget) monetary policy becomes subservient to fiscal policy, giving rise to more volatile inflation, output and … interest rates. Liquidity trap (LT) episodes are longer, however, the impact of interest rate policy commitments on inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012304687
that our "effective" approach is superior when it comes to assessing the impact of exchange rate regimes on inflation … trading partners. Using our measure of effective exchange rate regimes in a standard empirical analysis of inflation … associated with significantly lower inflation rates. This challenges the established view that soft pegs do not matter - or are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013329739
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011341696
This paper investigates the empirical significance of push- and pull factors of different types of capital flows - FDI, portfolio and "others" (including loans) - to emerging market and developing economies. Based on an extensive quarterly mixed time-series panel dataset for 32 emerging market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012314337