useful when analysing and forecasting employment and unemployment even if they are non-stationary or co-trending. Furthermore … regarding the statistical properties and the precision of the forecasts. Then, the forecasting accuracy is demonstrated for … German regional labour-market data in simulated forecasts at different horizons and for several periods. Business …

inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint … of this model using unique individual-level inflation expectations data across nine countries that allow for a direct … identification of these biases. Both inflation and deflationary biases are present (and sizable) in inflation expectations of these …

-GVAR models for the one- and four-quarter ahead forecast horizon for standard macroeconomic variables (real GDP, inflation, the … of inflation, real GDP and the real exchange rate, while for interest rates forecasts of univariate benchmark models … practically all variables and at both forecast horizons. The comparison of prior elicitation strategies indicates that the use of …