We evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained … from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyzes and forecast encompassing …, large country differences in the forecast accuracy of survey-based indicators emerge. These differences are mainly explained …

the forecasts, given the local nature of real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of different predictors is tested in a … confidence at the national level, consumer confidence, and price-to-rent ratios. Even better forecast precision can be achieved … by combining individual forecasts. On average, the forecast improvements attain about 20%, measured by reduction in RMSFE …