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The rare disaster hypothesis suggests that the extraordinarily high postwar U.S. equity premium resulted because investors ex ante demanded compensations for unlikely but calamitous risks that they happened not to incur. While convincing in theory, empirical tests of the rare disaster...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491152
This paper examines if overreaction of oil price forecasters is affected by uncertainty. Furthermore, it takes into account joint effects of uncertainty and oil price returns on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression model from Gonz alez et al. (2005) is applied with univariate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010480543
Cet ouvrage présente, dans une perspective comparatiste et sur la longue durée, les moyens de mobilisation des ressources publiques des Etats médiévaux et modernes, dont les besoins de fonds sont accrus par les guerres. Couvrant six siècles de l'histoire de l'Europe occidentale, les...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372910
We study the sustainability of public debt in a closed production economy where a benevolent government chooses fiscal policies, including haircuts on its outstanding debt, in a discretionary manner. Government bonds are held by domestic agents to smooth consumption over time and because they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491142
We investigate the political determinants of risk premiums which sub-national governments in Switzerland have to pay … contribute significantly to lower cantonal bond spreads. Second, we study the impact of a credible no-bailout regime on the risk … break lead to a reduction of cantonal risk premia by about 25 basis points. Moreover, it cut the link between cantonal risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010340959
The recent increase of interest rate spreads in Europe and their apparent detachment from underlying fundamental variables has generated a debate on multiple equilibria in the sovereign bond market (see De Grauwe and Ji (2012)). We critically evaluate this hypothesis, by pointing towards an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010341164
Austerity measures are frequently enacted when the sustainability of public finances is in doubt. Such doubts are reflected in high sovereign yield spreads and put further strain on government finances. Is austerity successful in restoring market confidence, bringing about a reduction in yield...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010481328
The asset value of government has traditionally been seen as the accounting value of public assets. We develop a detailed financial economics view on sovereign asset values using market measures to arrive at implied sovereign asset values. We establish definition and dependencies within the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010486036