Expectations matter for economic activity. To the extent that they are fundamentally unwarranted, they represent "undue optimism or pessimism" (Pigou, 1927). In this paper, we identify empirically the effect of undue optimism/pessism ("optimism shocks") on economic activity. In a first step, we...

Previous research shows that technical progress at the industry level, measured by sectoral TFP growth, is more localized in continental European countries than in Anglo-Saxon coun-tries. We use EU KLEMS data sets to decompose sectoral TFP for nine European countries by means of a Malmquist...

Intro -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction / Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb -- I. AI as a GPT -- 1. Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics / Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, and Chad Syverson, Comment: Rebecca...

This book discusses recent developments in theoretical and empirical business cycle analysis, identifying possible applications of sophisticated tools by private and public institutions involved in the analysis of economic fluctuations and facilitating interaction between academics, researchers...

We show that TFP reacts counter-cyclically to macroeconomic shocks, which we identify by imposing sign restrictions. Counterfactual simulations, based on a New Keynesian DSGE model, show that firms manage to employ labor more efficiently during downturns, which leads to a muted drop in the...

This book surveys the state-of-the-art in efficiency and productivity analysis, examining advances in the analytical foundations and empirical applications. The analytical techniques developed in this book for efficiency provide alternative ways of defining optimum outcome sets, typically as a...