There has been mixed evidence regarding the existence of rational bubbles in the foreign exchange markets. This paper introduces recently developed sequential unit root tests into the analysis of exchange rates bubbles. We find strong evidence of explosive behavior in the nominal Sterling-dollar...

In this paper we explore the possibility of the application of GAMLSS regression techniques for the analysis of income distributions in Germany following the reunification. We find that conditional income distributions can generally be modelled using the three parameter Dagum distribution and...

This paper considers estimation methods and inference for linear dynamic panel data models with unit-specific heterogeneity and a short time dimension. In particular, we focus on the identification of the coefficients of time-invariant variables in a dynamic version of the Hausman and Taylor...

I derive the unconditional transformed likelihood function and its derivatives for a fixed-effects panel data model with time lags, spatial lags, and spatial time lags that encompasses the pure time dynamic and pure space dynamic models as special cases. In addition, the model can accommodate...

Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of U.S. presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semi-parametric additive mixed models and...

Including disaggregate variables or using information extracted from the disaggregate variables into a forecasting model for an eco- nomic aggregate may improve the forecasting accuracy. In this paper we suggest to use boosting as a method to select the disaggregate variables which are most...

The ECB's one size monetary policy is unlikely to fit all euro area members, which raises a discussion about how much monetary policy stress this causes at the national level. We measure monetary policy stress as the difference between actual ECB interest rates and Taylor-rule implied optimal...

We propose a monitoring procedure to detect a structural change from stationary to integrated behavior. When the procedure is applied to the errors of a relationship between integrated series it thus monitors a structural change from a cointegrating relationship to a spurious regression. The...

In this paper I discuss the estimation of the process governing the structural shocks (or wedges) to a DSGE model, arguing that a well-specified model would satisfy certain sets of moment conditions. Based on tests for overidentifying restrictions, I compare three specifications of the Taylor...

The slow recovery following the 2008/2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions lower real GDP permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels. Using a recent quantile autoregression unit root test we check whether shocks to real GDP...