This paper studies the impact of the state-dependent risk of a government default on the correlation of the scal balance and current account. We use a small open economy model where nonlinear risk premia arise endogenously when the government operates close to its scal limit, i.e. the maximum...

High public debt combined with low capacities of the state to raise taxes and to support markets can put even developed countries into turmoil. However, the existing political economy literature of state capacity, pioneered by Besley and Persson (2009), does not investigate the interaction of...

The paper looks at the determinants of fiscal adjustments as reflected in the primary surplus of countries. Our conjecture is that governments will usually find it more attractive to pursue fiscal adjustments in a situation of relatively high growth, but based on a simple stylized model of...

Many economic studies analyse the impact of fiscal rules and discuss their effectiveness in limiting excessive debt. A majority of these studies, however, neglects or only deals insufficiently with the potential issue of endogeneity. In this paper, we propose a novel identification approach...

The present paper analyzes expectations of German politicians about the German debt brake (Schuldenbremse), which became part of the German constitution in 2009. This fiscal rule requires the federal government and the German states to run a (cyclically adjusted) budget deficit of no more than...

We examine the distributional and efficiency impacts of climate policy in the context of fiscal consolidation in a dynamic general-equilibrium overlapping generations model of the US economy. The model includes a disaggregated production structure, including energy sector detail and advanced...

This paper analyzes the efficiency consequences of local revenue policies if jurisdictions try to attenuate the pressures of inter-regional competition for mobile factors by substituting attention-grabbing tax instruments that spotlight an additional tax burden with rather inconspicuous ones. We...

We re-examin the notion of identifying macroeconomic effects using the narrative approach taking as an application the estimation of tax multipliers. We point out to a test for the checking the adequacy of regressing the narrative measure directly on the outcome variable. This test...

The consequences of tobacco control policies for individual welfare are difficult to assess. We therefore evaluate the impact of smoking bans and cigarette prices on subjective well-being by analyzing data for 40 European countries and regions between 1990 and 2011. We exploit the staggered...

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...