We study the relationship between cyclical job and worker flows at the plant level using a new data set spanning from 1976-2006. We find that procyclical labor demand explains relatively little of procyclical worker flows. Instead, all plants in the employment growth distribution increase their...

Using quarterly worker flow data of U.S. establishments, we find that an unexpected increase in uncertainty reduces hirings and quits, while it raises layoffs. This finding suggests that the real option effect of uncertainty is less important for employment decisions. Hence plants do not freeze...

The German employment miracle with a weak decline in employment and low unemployment during the great recession seems to be a good example for a successful labour market reform. While the aggregate level of job turnover seems to be stable over time, there are nevertheless concerns about rising...

In 2005, the unemployment compensation for long-term unemployed was reduced in Germany. We examine how this reform affected the transition probability to employment. Additionally, we inspect how this effect varies over unemployment duration. We estimate proportional hazard models using German...

Start-up subsidies for the unemployed have become an important part of Active Labor Market Policy (ALMP) in many countries. Previous evaluation results show pre-dominantly (very) positive results indicating that these programs are an effective way to increase employment probabilities and income...

A large and highly used number of treatment effects estimators rely on the unconfoundedness assumption ("selection on observables") which is fundamentally non testable. When evaluating the effects of labor market policies, researchers need to observe both variables that affect treatment...

We analyse the treatment effects of a large scale German active labour market program. Modellprojekte Bürgerarbeit is a modified public employment scheme, with an activation period as a first step. Using data from individual employment records we perform matching estimations to analyse the...

To which extent does an increase in effectiveness of a public employment agency on the one hand and a reduction of unemployment benefits on the other reduce unemployment? Using the recent labour market reform in Germany we find that an improved agency explains substantial part of the observed...

For instrumental-variable estimation using binary instruments, we offer simple methods to obtain policy-relevant insights beyond local average treatment effects. We demonstrate the methods by evaluating an element of choice introduced into active labour market policy in Germany by a reform in...

We analyse the impact of retraining for the unemployed on future labour market success, and estimate effects separately for different target occupations. We use German registry data and apply statistical matching methods. The results show that on average, after a period with strong lock-in...