estimation of the different models, respectively. We find that overall the large Bayesian VAR provides the most precise forecasts … variable to be forecast. …

with zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variable(s), and in a second step to derive the probability of … a suitably defined turning point from the forecast probability density function. This approach will never fail …

We analyze spectral risk measures with respect to comparative risk aversion following Arrow (1965) and Pratt (1964) on … widely-applied spectral Arrow-Pratt-measure is not a consistent measure of Arrow-Pratt-risk aversion. A decision maker with a … decision maker with a smaller spectral Arrow-Pratt-measure. We further show how a proper measure of Arrow-Pratt-risk aversion …

bank's own interest rate expectations. From a theoretical point of view, the latter should yield the highest forecast …