Showing 1 - 10 of 61
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011790739
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011704988
shrinkage. We derive point and density forecasts for euro area real GDP growth and HICP inflation conditional on an information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010342246
The detection of business-cycle turning points is usually performed with non-linear discrete-regime models such as binary dependent variable (e.g., probit or logit) or Markov-switching methods. The probit model has the drawback that the continuous underlying target variable is discretized, with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344635
The paper considers an elementary New-Keynesian three equation model and compares its Bayesian estimation to the results from the method of moments (MM), which seeks to match a finite set of the model-generated second moments of in ation, output and the interest rate to their empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344663
-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484392
Did the increase in counterparty risk perception in the interbank market since autumn 2007 contribute to the severe contraction of the US economy? To address this question we introduce interbank market uncertainty in a DSGE model with frictional financial intermediation. Interbank uncertainty is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010487259
We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches for German key macroeconomic variables using a dataset that consists of 123 variables in quarterly frequency. These three approaches handle the dimensionality problem evoked by such a large dataset by aggregating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010489849
Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions allow to estimate dynamic equations that explain a low-frequency variable by … an extension to MIDAS with time-varying parameters, which follow random-walk processes. The non-linear functional forms … in the MIDAS regression necessitate the use of non-linear ltering techniques. In this paper, the Particle Fi lter is used …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010481353
In this paper, we analyse nominal exchange rate and price dynamics after risk shocks with short-term interest rates constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB). We show with a stylized theoretical model that temporary risk shocks may lead to permanent shifts of the exchange rate and the price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010340556