We present a duopoly model of strategic capital accumulation in continuous time with uncertainty, such that investment takes the form of singular control. Spot competition is of Cournot type. For this model there exists a parameterized and Pareto-rankable family of Markov perfect equiblibria in...

This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...

We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the Euro Area, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: "Low", "Medium" and "High" inflation, while state transition probabilities vary over time...