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A latent dynamic factor approach to forecasting multivariate stock market volatility : conference paper

Gribisch, Bastian - 2013

This paper proposes a latent dynamic factor model for low- as well as high-dimensional realized covariance matrices of stock returns. The approach is based on the matrix logarithm and allows for flexible dynamic dependence patterns by combining common latent factors driven by HAR dynamics and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010341025

Measuring persistence in volatility spillovers : conference paper

Conrad, Christian; Weber, Enzo - Wettbewerbspolitik und Regulierung in einer Globalen … - 2013

This paper analyzes volatility spillovers in multivariate GARCH-type models. We show that the cross-effects between the … conditional variances determine the persistence of the transmitted volatility innovations. In particular, the influence of a … foreign volatility innovation on a conditional variance is even more persistent than an own innovation unless this effect is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010341118

Proceedings of the Hong Kong International Workshop on Statistics and Finance: an Interface : Centre of Financial Time Series, the University of Hong Kong 4-8 July 1999

Chan, Wai-Sum (contributor); Li, Wai Keung (contributor); … - International Workshop on Statistics and Finance <1999, … - 2000

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001490756

Identifying volatility signals from time-varying simultaneous stock market interaction : conference paper

Strohsal, Till; Weber, Enzo - 2013

In the academic literature, the economic interpretation of stock market volatility is inherently ambivalent, being … volatility-dependent cross-market spillovers. If higher volatility in one market leads to higher (lower) reactions in another … market, volatility reflects information (uncertainty). We introduce a simultaneous time-varying coefficient model, where …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339937

Special issue on high frequency data in finance ; Pt. 2

Baillie, Richard (contributor); … - 1999

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001558702

Assessing the macroeconomic forecasting performance of boosting : evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany ; conference paper

Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2014

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491104

Outperforming IMF forecasts by the use of leading indicators : conference paper

Heinisch, Katja; Giesen, Sebastian; Lindner, Axel - 2014

This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484392

Point and density forecasts for the Euro area using many predictors : are large BVARs really superior?

Berg, Tim Oliver; Henzel, Steffen - 2013

Forecast models with large cross-sections are often subject to overparameterization leading to unstable parameter estimates and hence inaccurate forecasts. Recent articles suggest that a large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with sufficient prior information dominates competing approaches....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010342246

Sign restrictions and statistical identification under volatility breaks : simulation based evidence and an empirical application to monetary policy analysis ; conference paper

Herwartz, Helmut; Plödt, Martin - 2014

Apart from a priori assumptions on instantaneous or long run effects of structural shocks, sign restrictions have become a prominent means for structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis. Moreover, second order heterogeneity of systems of times series can be fruitfully exploited for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010482469

Forecasting aggregates with disaggregate variables : does boosting help to select the most informative predictors? ; conference paper

Zeng, Jing - 2014

Including disaggregate variables or using information extracted from the disaggregate variables into a forecasting model for an eco- nomic aggregate may improve the forecasting accuracy. In this paper we suggest to use boosting as a method to select the disaggregate variables which are most...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010482520

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