Most financial and investment decisions are based on considerations of possible future changes and require forecasts on the evolution of the financial world. Time series and processes are the natural tools for describing the dynamic behavior of financial data, leading to the required forecasts....

Preface -- Notation -- Preliminaries -- Probability spaces and related structures -- Integration -- Absolute continuity, conditioning and independence -- Convergence of random variables -- The art of random sampling

"Risk models are models of uncertainty, engineered for some purposes. They are educated guesses and hypotheses assessed and valued in terms of well-defined future states and their consequences. They are engineered to predict, to manage countable and accountable futures and to provide a frame of...