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The impact of uncertainty on professional exchange rate forecasts
Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert - 2016
This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011532311
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The impact of population aging on the German statutory pension insurance : a probabilistic approach
Vanella, Patrizio; Gonzalez, Miguel Rodriguez; Wilke, … - 2021
-as-you-go systems are needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to forecast the numbers of pensioners in Germany up to 2040 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599101
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Optimizing time-series forecasts for inflation and interest rates using simulation and model averaging
Jumah, Adusei; Kunst, Robert M. - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778880
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Forecasting random walks under drift instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003850869
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Learning trend inflation : can signal extraction explain survey forecasts?
Henzel, Steffen - 2008
It can be shown that inflation expectations and associated forecast errors are characterized by a high degree of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008858930
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Modelling and forecasting oil prices : the role of asymmetric cycles
Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús; Jumah, Adusei; Karbuz, Sohbet - 2007
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003675347
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Forecasting random walks under drift instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); Pick, Andreas (contributor) - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711763
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Measuring uncertainty of a combined forecast and some tests for forecaster heterogeneity
Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Sheng, Xuguang - 2015
We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305389
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What do professional forecasters actually predict?
Nibbering, Didier; Paap, Richard; Wel, Michel van der - 2015
In this paper we study what professional forecasters actually explain. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into a trend, a business-cycle, and an irregular component. To examine which components are captured by professional forecasters we regress...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305773
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Forecasting the global mean sea level, a continuous-time state-space approach
Boldrini, Lorenzo - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011327705