-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases … prices, forecasts based on AR and ARMA models, and the no-change forecast. In addition, these VAR models have consistently … forecasters to interpret their oil price forecast in light of economic models and to evaluate its sensitivity to alternative …

leptokurtosis. We use our approach to forecast industrial production series in the core EMU countries and we provide evidence that …

We investigate the predictive power of several leading indicators in order to forecast industrial production in Germany … indicators. We show that the best set of predictors, within and between categories, changes over time and depends on the forecast … unterschiedlicher Finanzmarktindikatoren, um die Industrieproduktion in Deutschland vorherzusagen. Die Prognoseeigenschaften, innerhalb …