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". We observe both stable markets and large bubbles for both small and large markets. The data analysis shows no differences … successfully drives prices back towards the fundamental, but we observe very large bubbles in which the news apparently has no …
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We study the role of experience in the formation of asset price bubbles. Therefore, we conduct two related experiments … participants receive. Each market is repeated three times. In both experiments and in all treatments, we observe sizable bubbles …. These bubbles do not disappear with experience. Our findings in the call market experiment stand in contrast to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932581
We investigate expectation formation in a controlled experimental en-vironment. Subjects are asked to predict the price in a standard asset pricingmodel. They do not have knowledge of the underlying market equilibrium equa-tions, but they know all past realized prices and their own predictions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333274
We propose a novel class of models in which the crash hazard rate is determined by a function of a non-local estimation of mispricing. Rooted in behavioral finance, the non-local estimation embodies in particular the characteristic of "anchoring" on past price levels and the "probability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012800780
We present results of an experiment on expectation formation in an asset market. Participants to our experiment must provide forecasts of the stock future return to computerized utility-maximizing investors, and are rewarded according to how well their forecasts perform in the market. In the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008732426
We propose an extension of the class of rational expectations bubbles (REBs) to the more general rational beliefs … beliefs can thus account for speculative bubbles, without the need for irrational agents or limits to arbitrage. Many of the … shortcomings of REBs that make rational bubbles implausible can be overcome once we relax the ergodicity requirement. In particular …
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We estimate a dynamic asset pricing model characterized by heterogeneous boundedly rational agents. The fundamental value of the risky asset is publicly available to all agents, but they have different beliefs about the persistence of deviations of stock prices from the fundamental benchmark. An...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343265
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