How do short and long term interest rates respond to a jump in financial uncertainty? We address this question by … conducting a local projections analysis with US monthly data, period: 1962-2018. The state-of-the-art financial uncertainty … particular, an increase in financial uncertainty is found to trigger a negative and significant response of both short and long …

intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that … insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons. …