In this paper, we propose a framework to evaluate the information content of subjective expert density forecasts using micro data from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). A key aspect of our analysis is the use of scoring functions which evaluate the entire predictive densities,...

The opioid epidemic and migration along the US–Mexico border are two of the most-debated policy issues in recent US politics. We show how these two topics are interlinked: the US opioid epidemic generated large Mexican migration flows. We exploit the fact that in 2010, a series of reforms to...

Systematic discrimination and violence against minorities are enduring phenomena. This paper investigates the role of racist narratives in sustaining discriminatory attitudes and collective violence against the Black population in the United States South from 1865 to today. Leveraging plausible...

We use changes in Brazil s tax on capital inflows from 2006 to 2011 to test for direct portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls on investor portfolios. The analysis is structured based on information from investor interviews. We find that an increase in Brazil s tax on foreign...

Traditional carry trade strategies are based on differences in short-term interest rates, neglecting any other information embedded in yield curves. We derive return distributions of carry trade portfolios among G10 currencies, where the signals to buy and sell currencies are based on summary...