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crash hazard rate in the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model of rational expectation bubbles. The model is based on a percolation … crash. This provides a formula to estimate the crash hazard rate by summation over percolation clusters above a minimum size … of a power $s^a$ (with $a>1$) of the cluster sizes $s$, similarly to a generalized percolation susceptibility.The power …
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Path forecasts, defined as sequences of individual forecasts, generated by vector autoregressions are widely used in applied work. It has been recognized that a profound econometric analysis often requires, besides the path forecast, a joint prediction region that contains the whole future path...
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Benchmarking methods are widely used in the regulation of firms in network industries working under heterogeneous exogenous environments. In this paper we compare three recently developed estimators, namely conditional DEA (Daraio and Simar, 2005, 2007b), latent class SFA (Orea and Kumbhakar, 2004;...
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Few authors have studied, either asymptotically or in finite samples, the size and power of seasonal unit root tests when the data generating process [DGP] is a non-stationary alternative aside from the seasonal random walk. In this respect, Ghysels, lee and Noh (1994) conducted a simulation...
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This paper shows that the presence of conditional staging in R&D (Research & Development) has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and changes diversification arguments when a portfolio is constructed. When R&D projects exhibit option-like characteristics, correlation between projects plays a...
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