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Forecasting regional industrial production with high-frequency electricity consumption data

Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022

In this paper, we study the predictive power of electricity consumption data for regional economic activity. Using unique weekly and monthly electricity consumption data for the second-largest German state, the Free State of Bavaria, we conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425

Forecasting industrial production in Germany : the predictive power of leading indicators

Schlösser, Alexander - 2020

unterschiedlicher Finanzmarktindikatoren, um die Industrieproduktion in Deutschland vorherzusagen. Die Prognoseeigenschaften, innerhalb …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012149544

China's march to prosperity : reforms to avoid the middle-income trap

Koen, Vincent; Herd, Richard; Hill, Sam - 2013

China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010231008

Forecasting with many predictors : is boosting a viable alternative?

Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2010

This paper evaluates the forecast performance of boosting, a variable selection device, and compares it with the forecast combination schemes and dynamic factor models presented in Stock and Watson (2006). Using the same data set and comparison methodology, we find that boosting is a serious...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008757436

Wachstumsmotor Industrie? : zur Bedeutung des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes für die Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts

Wienert, Helmut - 2009

Aufbauend auf einem von Kaldor 1967 entwickelten Ansatz wird der Einfluss der Industrieproduktion auf das … Aufschwüngen zieht die viel stärker als die übrigen Sektoren schwankende Industrieproduktion das gesamtwirtschaftliche Wachstum … nach oben, in Abschwüngen wird es durch den Einbruch bei der Industrieproduktion gedrückt. In Schwellenländern ist die …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010357164

Wachstumsmotor Industrie? : zur Bedeutung des verarbeitenden Gewerbes für die Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts

Wienert, Helmut - 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013438172

Old Europe ages : can it still prosper?

Börsch-Supan, Axel; Ludwig, Alexander - 2009

Population aging will be a major determinant of long-run economic development in industrial and developing countries. The extent of the demographic changes is dramatic in some countries and will deeply affect future labor, financial and goods markets. The expected strain on public budgets and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003901593

Using internet data to account for special events in economic forecasting

Schmidt, Torsten; Vosen, Simeon - 2012

Information about special events can improve economic forecasts substantially. However, due to the lack of timely quantitative data about these events, it has been difficult for professional forecasters to utilise such information in their forecasts. This paper investigates whether Internet...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009673348

Forecasting with a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function

Hutter, Christian; Weber, Enzo - 2014

sich Vorhersagen von Abgängen aus Arbeitslosigkeit in Beschäftigung in Deutschland durch eine Matchingfunktion verbessern …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010401765

Social security and the interactions between aggregate and idiosyncratic risk

Harenberg, Daniel; Ludwig, Alexander - 2014 - This Version: July 9, 2014

We ask whether a PAYG-financed social security system is welfare improving in an economy with idiosyncratic and aggregate risk. We argue that interactions between the two risks are important for this question. One is a direct interaction in the form of a countercyclical variance of idiosyncratic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374428