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In this paper we derive tests for parameter constancy when the data generating process is non-stationary against the hypothesis that the parameters of the model change smoothly over time. To obtain the asymptotic distributions of the tests we generalize many theoretical results, as well as new...
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We compare Bayesian and sample theory model specification criteria. For the Bayesian criteria we use the deviance … information criterion and the cumulative density of the mean squared errors of forecast. For the sample theory criterion we use …
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This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of international macroeconomic uncertainty shocks. We use a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) specification with drifting coefficients and factor stochastic volatility in the errors to model six economies jointly. The measure of uncertainty is...
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