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In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey … survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set by the central banks of Brazil and Turkey with the predictions … inflation expectations are anchored more closely the inflation target set by the Central Bank for Brazil. By contrast, there is …
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This paper applies the Holston-Laubach-Williams methodology to estimate the natural rate of interest for Brazil. …
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The Global Financial Crisis established that policymakers should consider the stage of the financial cycle to better evaluate the cyclical position of the economy when designing monetary policy decisions. If financial variables are omitted from the estimations of the output gap, a common and...
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data from 1995Q4 to 2021Q4 and Bayesian estimation methods, we find that trend inflation has been well-anchored during the …
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Building upon the insight that M1 velocity is the permanent component of nominal interest rates - see Benati (2020) - I propose a novel, and straightforward approach to estimating the natural rate of interest, which is conceptually related to Cochrane's (1994) proposal to estimate the permanent...
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