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Measuring connectedness of Euro area sovereign risk
Gätjen, Rebekka; Schienle, Melanie - 2015
We introduce a methodology for measuring default risk connectedness that is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. The out-of-sample nature of the procedure leads to "realized" measures which, in practice, respond more quickly to crisis occurrences than those...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010503874
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Bank use of sovereign CDS in the eurozone crisis : hedging and risk incentives
Acharya, Viral V.; Gündüz, Yalın; Johnson, Tim - 2018
Using a comprehensive dataset from German banks, we document the usage of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) during the European sovereign debt crisis of 2008-2013. Banks used the sovereign CDS market to extend, rather than hedge, their long exposures to sovereign risk during this period....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011888333
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Measuring connectedness of euro area sovereign risk
Buse, Rebekka; Schienle, Melanie - 2019
We introduce a method for measuring default risk connectedness of euro zone sovereign states using credit default swap (CDS) and bond data. The connectedness measure is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. Due to its predictive nature, it can respond more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011958223
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Sovereign contagion in Europe : evidence from the CDS market
Manasse, Paolo; Zavalloni, Luca - 2013
This paper addresses the following questions. Is there evidence of financial contagion in the Eurozone? To what extent … matter concerning the Euro Zone. Second, differences in vulnerability to contagion within the Eurozone are even more … remarkable: the core Eurozone members become less vulnerable to EUZ contagion, possibly due to a safe-heaven effect, while …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011731038
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Flight patterns and yields of European Government Bonds
Schweinitz, Gregor von - 2013
möglicherweise problematischen Strukturbruch zurückzugreifen. Als Haupteffekte werden Kreditrisiko und flight …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009771035
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Regime-dependent sovereign risk pricing during the euro crisis
Delatte, Anne-Laure; Fouquau, Julien; Portes, Richard - 2016
Previous work has documented a greater sensitivity of long-term government bond yields to fundamentals in Euro area stress countries during the euro crisis, but we know little about the driver(s) of regime-switches. Our estimates based on a panel smooth threshold regression model quantify and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011974869
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Sovereign spreads in the Eurozone : is market discipline working?
Zuccardi, Igor Esteban - 2015
This paper studies the behavior of sovereign spreads of countries in the European Monetary Union (EMU) and their apparent disconnection with country-specific fundamentals before the 2008- 2013 debt crisis. We test three characteristics of spreads: i) a change in the level of spreads, ii) a weak...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011389638
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The zero risk fallacy? : banks' sovereign exposure and sovereign risk spillovers
Kirschenmann, Karolin; Korte, Josef; Steffen, Sascha - 2017
European banks are exposed to a substantial amount of risky sovereign debt. The "missing bank capital" resulting from the zero-risk weight exemption for European banks for European sovereign debt amplifies the co-movement between sovereign CDS spreads and facilitates cross-border...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011764975
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Score-driven systemic risk signaling for European sovereign bond yields and CDS spreads
Lange, Rutger-Jan; Lucas, André; Siegmann, Adriaan Hendrik - 2016
We compute joint sovereign default probabilities as coincident systemic risk indicators. Instead of commonly used CDS spreads, we use government bond yield data which provide a longer data history. We show that for the more recent sample period 2008--2015, joint default probabilities based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011531096
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Sovereign risk and economic complexity
Gómez González, José Eduardo; Uribe, Jorge; … - 2024
This paper investigates how a country's economic complexity influences its sovereign yield spread with respect to the United States. Notably, a one-unit increase in the Economic Complexity Index is associated with a reduction of about 87 basis points in the 10-year yield spread. However, this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014536288