China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...

If the relation between investment and economic growth is well established in the macroeconomic literature, the existence of a similar link at the level of the firm has been challenged by empirical work. This paper investigates the channels linking investment and firm performance in the French...

If the relation between investment and economic growth is well established in the macroeconomic literature, the existence of a similar link at the level of the firm has been challenged by empirical work. This paper investigates the channels linking investment and firm performance in the French...

Ifo-Indikatoren werden auf ihre Vorlaufeigenschaften, auf Granger-Kausalität, die Stabilität der Vorlaufbeziehung und einen Strukturbruch untersucht. Da die Ifo-Reihen noch nicht auf die neue Gliederung der amtlichen Statistik (WZ 93) umgestellt wurden, wird erstmals die Eignung der...

A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time....

The introduction of a common monetary policy in eleven European countries increased the need for leading indicators for that area. A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference...

In this paper we used a data set constructed for a companion paper (Fritsche/Stephan, 2000) where we explored the leading indicator properties of different time series for the German business cycle. Now we test for the ability of different indicator series to forecast recessions by using a...

India presents an unique example of manufacturing capability in most sectors, but low integration into GVCs. This paper examines the reasons for India's low integration into GVCs, especially in the manufacturing sector. It argues that one of the reasons for India's low integration into GVCs is...

This paper analyzes firm level adjustment of the product mix and its implications for aggregate output growth. Using firm level panel data from Ethiopian manufacturing during the period 1996-2007, it shows that about 30% of firms adjust their "extensive margin" annually by adding and/or dropping...

The agent-based (behavioural) model is extended to include a financial friction on the supply side. Firms finance capital purchases using external financing, but need to pay for it in advance. In addition, firm financing constraint and net worth are determined by stock market prices, which can...