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A test for serial independence is proposed which is related to the BDS test but focuses on tail event probabilities rather than probabilities near the center of the distribution. The motivation behind this approach is to obtain a test more suitable for detecting structure in the tails, such as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011327543
This paper suggests how to quantify asymmetries in volatility spillovers that emerge due to bad and good volatility … stocks at the disaggregate level. Moreover, the spillovers of bad and good volatility are transmitted at different magnitudes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010509638
Asymmetries in volatility spillovers are highly relevant to risk valuation and portfolio diversification strategies in … volatility may spill over at different magnitudes. This paper fills this gap with two contributions. One, we suggest how to … quantify asymmetries in volatility spillovers due to bad and good volatility. Two, using high frequency data covering most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010407529
financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH … to forecast financial markets volatility. The real data in this study uses British Pound-US Dollar (GBP) daily exchange … examined to the free parameters. Keywords: recurrent support vector regression ; GARCH model ; volatility forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636113
This paper provides statistical learning techniques for determining the full own-price market impact and the relevance and effect of cross-price and cross-asset spillover channels from intraday transactions data. The novel tools allow extracting comprehensive information contained in the limit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012614016
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010221576
-varying volatility of the data generating process can have rather adverse effects when inferring about its persistence; e.g. unit root … conditional heteroskedasticity). The paper explores the influence of time-varying volatility on fractionally integrated processes …. Concretely, we discuss how to model long memory in the presence of time-varying volatility, and analyze the effects of such …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010375374
- and out-of-sample, using predictive variables such as the dividend yield or the volatility risk premium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721331
This work develops change-point methods for statistics of high-frequency data. The main interest is the volatility of … discriminate different smoothness classes of the underlying stochastic volatility process. In a high-frequency framework we prove … extremely mild smoothness assumptions on the stochastic volatility we thereby derive a consistent test for volatility jumps. A …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477582
Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431370