Public pay-as-you-go pensions still form the dominant pillar of old-age provision in Germany. This is in marked contrast to the situation in Anglo-Saxon countries. It has advantages if labour markets are strong, e.g., following a quick recovery from the Great Recession. It has disadvantages, as...

This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is...

This study assesses macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of demographic changes in the Czech Republic, as a result of population ageing and international migration. To do so, it develops a unique dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model with detailed...

This paper presents long term projections of the German pension system that are based on a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations (OLG). This framework takes into account the two way feedback of both micro and macroeconomic relationships, meaning that households, for example,...

The ifo Institute is Germany’s largest business survey provider, with the ifo Business Climate Germany as one of the most important leading indicators for gross domestic product. However, the ifo Business Survey is not solely limited to the Business Climate and also delivers a multitude of...

Die demographische Alterung erzeugt Risiken für die langfristige Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland, die bei haushaltspolitischen Entscheidungen bereits kurz- und mittelfristig zu beachten sind. Die im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen durchgeführte Untersuchung...

Population aging will be a major determinant of long-run economic development in industrial and developing countries. The extent of the demographic changes is dramatic in some countries and will deeply affect future labor, financial and goods markets. The expected strain on public budgets and...

The study was prepared in the framework of the "Priority Project TÁMOP - 2.3.2-09/1: Establishing labour market forecasts and foreseeing structural changes". It presents a comprehensive overview of labour market forecasting activities, mostly quantitative, based on multi-sector models, in 12...

As its workforce ages and major economies shift towards producing higher value-added goods and services, New Zealand will face increasing challenges to remain globally competitive and maintain high living standards. Future growth will need to come increasingly from productivity gains, and...

This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is...