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countries with authoritarian regimes. Moreover, the experts estimate the influence of the media remarkably higher on others than …This article sheds light on the impact of the media on economists' expectations for future economic developments. We … conducted a worldwide economic expert survey and find that the media provides most economists with valuable information that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013417245
experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a … large effects of Joe Biden's election on growth expectations of international experts, working through more positive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013383634
We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003908342
of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their … called US president. Our results show that the election of Joe Biden increased growth expectations of international experts …-run and (ii) experts’ uncertainty increased after the election. Our results suggest that exceptional politicians influence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012417461
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forming posteriors with one exception: when assessing the credibility of experts, they "double-dip" the data and use already …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011756731
representative of the US population and a sample of more than 1,000 experts, we measure beliefs about how the unemployment rate and … predict changes in unemployment that are largely in line with the experts' responses for all four shocks. However, their … predictions of changes in inflation are at odds with those of experts both for the tax shock and the interest rate shock. We show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104048
,500 US households and 1,500 experts, beliefs are widely dispersed, even about the directional effects of shocks, and there are … large differences in average beliefs between households and experts. Part of this disagreement seems to arise from selective … recall different propagation channels of the shocks, while experts tend to re-call textbook models. Our findings offer a new …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012663050
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