Background: This paper shows that Big Data and the so-called tools of digital demography, such as Google Trends (GT) and insights from social networks such as Instagram, Twitter and Facebook, can be useful for determining, estimating, and predicting the forced migration flows to the EU caused by...

In this paper, an econometric model of consumption in Bulgaria for the period 1997-2005 is constructed. The Error-Correction Model (ECM) approach is employed and long-run relationship between household consumption and income was found. The primary purpose of this empirical paper is to get a...

Carbon prices in the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) are a key instrument driving Europe’s decarbonization. Between 2017 and 2021, they surged tenfold, exceeding 80 €/tCO2 and reshaping investment decisions across the electricity and industry sectors. What has driven this increase is an...

We introduce a pro-cyclical endogenous utilization rate of physical capital stock into a real-business-cycle model augmented with a detailed government sector. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2016). We...

This paper aims to shed light on the importance of health considerations for business cycle fluctuations and the effect of health status on labor productivity and availability of labor input for productive use. To this end, Grossman's (2000) partial-equilibrium framework with endogenous health...

This paper focuses on explaining the economic fluctuations in Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement in 1997, the period of macroeconomic stability that ensued, the EU accession, and the episode of the recent global financial crisis. This paper follows Chari et al....

Ethnic and international conflicts have turned into a real headache for the modern world. The confrontations that have begun between the nations have escalated into serious conflicts that take the lives of thousands of innocent children, women and old people every year. Such conflicts create...

This paper analyses the impact of the skill composition of migration flows on the host country's labour market in a specific-factors-two-sector model with heterogeneous labour (low, medium, and high skill) and price- and wage-setting behaviour. The low- and medium-skilled labour markets are...

This study have uniquely mad use of Box-Jenkins ARIMA models to address the core of the threes objectives set out in view of the focus to add meaningful value to knowledge exploration. The outcome of the research have testify the achievements of this through successful nine months out-of-sample...

This paper investigates the finite sample properties of the two-step estimators of dynamic factor models when unobservable common factors are estimated by the principal components methods in the first step. Effects of the number of individual series on the estimation of an auto-regressive model...