Optimal forecasts are, under a squared error loss, conditional expectations of the unknown future values of interest. When stochastic demographic models are used in macroeconomic analyses, it becomes important to be able to handle updated forecasts. That is, when population development turns out...

There are over 3 billion searches globally on Google every day. This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future unemployment rate in Finland. Predicting the present and the near future is of interest, as the official records of the state...

This paper studies real-time measures of the output gap and fiscal policy stance estimates for EU countries. We construct a comprehensive real-time data set on fiscal forecasts and study whether there are systematic differences between the European Commission and IMF estimates of the output gap...

This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future house prices in Finland. Compared to a simple benchmark model, Google searches improve the prediction of the present house price index by 7.5 % measured by mean absolute error. In addition,...

We have constructed a financial conditions index for Norway (FCIN). The FCIN offers a daily update on Norwegian financial conditions based on data from January 2003 on bank lending rates, bond spreads, the foreign exchange market, the stock market and the housing market. The index is constructed...

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...

This paper presents the updated macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising around 100 of the largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks' reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of...