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Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Expectations for Sustainability Analyses

Alho, Juha - 2014

Optimal forecasts are, under a squared error loss, conditional expectations of the unknown future values of interest. When stochastic demographic models are used in macroeconomic analyses, it becomes important to be able to handle updated forecasts. That is, when population development turns out...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037644

Big data: Google-haut ennustavat työttömyyttä Suomessa

Tuhkuri, Joonas - 2014

There are over 3 billion searches globally on Google every day. This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future unemployment rate in Finland. Predicting the present and the near future is of interest, as the official records of the state...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037651

Real-Time Measures of the Output Gap and Fiscal Policy Stance

Virkola, Tuomo - 2014

This paper studies real-time measures of the output gap and fiscal policy stance estimates for EU countries. We construct a comprehensive real-time data set on fiscal forecasts and study whether there are systematic differences between the European Commission and IMF estimates of the output gap...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037657

ETLAnow: A Model for Forecasting with Big Data – Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches in Europe

Tuhkuri, Joonas - 2016

In this report we document the ETLAnow project. ETLAnow is a model for forecasting with big data. At the moment, it …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037674

Google-haut Suomen asuntojen hintojen ennustajana

Widgrén, Joona - 2016

This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future house prices in Finland. Compared to a simple benchmark model, Google searches improve the prediction of the present house price index by 7.5 % measured by mean absolute error. In addition,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037683

Entwicklung der Treibhausgasemissionen in Luxemburg: Prognosegrundlagen für den Nationalen Allokationsplan 2008-2012

de Miguel Cabeza, Mercedes - 2006

Die vorliegende Studie wurde im Rahmen der Projektarbeiten zur Vorbereitung des zweiten Nationalen Allokationsplans des Großherzogtums Luxemburg erstellt. Zunächst wird die Entwicklung der CO2-Emissionen für die Periode von 2008 bis 2012 prognostiziert und anschließend eine Quantifizierung...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012290125

Assessing the mid-term growth outlook for the Indian economy

Barker, Jamie; Herrala, Risto - 2021

analysis, which abstracts from the pandemic period, mainly serves as support to forecasting the global economy. After the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168653

Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting

2021

) exploring the role that measures of expectations can play in forecasting inflation. While it is households' and firms' inflation … can play in forecasting inflation, this paper finds that they are indicative for future inflationary developments. When it … bring forecast gains when included in forecasting models and can also inform scenario and risk analysis in projection …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661646

Forecasting private investment in Finland using Q-theory and frequency decomposition

Nippala, Veera; Sinivuori, Taina - 2023

We look for a forecasting model for private investments in Finland. As explanatory variables, we use different proxies … statistically significant. Frequency decomposition can improve the model performance, even though the difference is not …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014423957

Externalities and market failures of cryptocurrencies

Hokkanen, Topi - 2023

This paper discusses the externalities and market failures in cryptocurrency markets. In particular, I highlight the significant environmental externalities created by Proof-of-Work (PoW) cryptocurrencies, the most prominent of which is Bitcoin. The main goals of this paper are to quantify these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014423971