The share of private consumption in gross domestic product is significant; therefore, private consumption has a great influence on economic growth, which makes it a major concept in economics. The purpose of the paper is to estimate and evaluate different forecasting models for private...

This paper - which takes into consideration overall experience with the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as well as the improvements made to this measure of inflation since 2003 - finds that the HICP continues to fulfil the prerequisites for the index underlying the ECB's definition of...

In this paper we describe Norges Bank's system for averaging models (SAM) which produces model-based density forecasts for Norwegian Mainland GDP and inflation. We combine the forecasts from three main types of models typically used at central banks: Vector autoregressive models, leading...

Timely and accurate assessment of current macroeconomic activity is crucial for policymakers and other economic agents. Nowcasting aims to forecast the current economic situation ahead of official data releases. We develop and apply a large Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model to nowcast...

In January 2007 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published, on an ad hoc basis, a series of financial soundness indicators (FSIs) based on a common methodology (the IMF compilation Guide) for 62 countries, including all 27 European Union countries. The European Central Bank (ECB), jointly...

The Eurosystem macroeconomic projection exercises are part of the input prepared for the Governing Council’s decision-making meetings. Under the economic analysis pillar of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, they are a key element in the assessment of economic prospects and of the short to...

Das Finanzierungsumfeld für kleine und mittlere Unternehmen (KMU) befindet sich im Wandel. Die Veränderungen des konjunkturellen Umfelds und der damit verbundenen Niedrigzinspolitik sowie die Basel-Regulierungen zeigen einen deutlichen Einfluss auf die Finanzierungsstrukturen der KMU. So...

This paper investigates the determinants of a broad sample of Swiss non-financial firms' cash holdings between 1995 and 2004. The median Swiss firm holds almost twice as much cash and cash equivalents as the median U.S. or U.K. firm. Our results indicate that asset tangibility and firm size are...

This paper is an overview of the achievements in the area of employee financial participation (EFP) during the last fifty years. It addresses the question of the extent to which EFP is relevant in today's world. EFP is distinguished from participation in management (industrial democracy), and...

Bei der Diskussion um die Finanzierung bzw. Eigenkapitalausstattung mittelständischer Unternehmen rücken gegenwärtig die Möglichkeiten zur Fremdkapitalaufnahme, neue Finanzierungsformen und damit die sich verändernden Rahmenbedingungen bei der Kreditvergabe an kleine und mittlere...