This paper analyses the challenges that high public debt and ageing populations pose to medium-term growth. First, macroeconometric model simulations suggest that medium-term growth can benefit from credible fiscal consolidation, partly through reductions in sovereign risk premia. Second, a...

Im Rahmen des vorliegenden IW-Reports werden die Konsequenzen der aktuellen handelspolitischen Herausforderungen für die deutsche Wirtschaft geschätzt und die Größenordnung ihrer gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte quantifiziert. Die Simulationen mit dem Oxford Economics Global Economic Model...

The report focuses on the relative macroeconomic performance since the global financial crisis of six Northern European countries with a special emphasis on Finland. While fiscal and monetary policies have definitely impacted on macroeconomic outcomes in the six countries examined, as a whole...

When the central bank sets monetary policy according to a conventional or modified Taylor rule (which is known as the Taylor Principle), does this deliver the best outcome for the mac-roeconomy as a whole? This question is addressed by extending the wavelet-based control (WBC) model of Crowley...

This report looks backwards to the worldwide use of (enhanced) lender of last resort (LOLR) and market maker of last resort (MMLR) facilities during the global financial and the pandemic crises. It discusses how LOLR and MMLR facilities have worked; looking ahead, it considers what benefits and...

We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the...

In this paper we describe Norges Bank's system for averaging models (SAM) which produces model-based density forecasts for Norwegian Mainland GDP and inflation. We combine the forecasts from three main types of models typically used at central banks: Vector autoregressive models, leading...

Jean-Claude Trichet deserves praise for fighting inflation and his handling of the financial crisis of 2007-2009. But his legacy is unfinished and we still have to see whether he will be the one who saved the euro. Important challenges remain for the incoming president. First, trust of citizens...

The Bank of England, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have responded to the crisis with exceptional initiatives resulting in a major increase in their balance sheets. After the ECB's end-2011 launch of three-year bank refinancing (LTRO), there has been speculation...

This paper reviews the role and effects of the collateral framework which central banks, and in particular the Eurosystem, use in conducting temporary monetary policy operations. First, the paper explains the design of such a framework from the perspective of risk mitigation, which is the...