Im Rahmen des vorliegenden IW-Reports werden die Konsequenzen der aktuellen handelspolitischen Herausforderungen für die deutsche Wirtschaft geschätzt und die Größenordnung ihrer gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte quantifiziert. Die Simulationen mit dem Oxford Economics Global Economic Model...

This paper analyses the challenges that high public debt and ageing populations pose to medium-term growth. First, macroeconometric model simulations suggest that medium-term growth can benefit from credible fiscal consolidation, partly through reductions in sovereign risk premia. Second, a...

The report focuses on the relative macroeconomic performance since the global financial crisis of six Northern European countries with a special emphasis on Finland. While fiscal and monetary policies have definitely impacted on macroeconomic outcomes in the six countries examined, as a whole...

When the central bank sets monetary policy according to a conventional or modified Taylor rule (which is known as the Taylor Principle), does this deliver the best outcome for the mac-roeconomy as a whole? This question is addressed by extending the wavelet-based control (WBC) model of Crowley...

This report looks backwards to the worldwide use of (enhanced) lender of last resort (LOLR) and market maker of last resort (MMLR) facilities during the global financial and the pandemic crises. It discusses how LOLR and MMLR facilities have worked; looking ahead, it considers what benefits and...

In this paper we describe Norges Bank's system for averaging models (SAM) which produces model-based density forecasts for Norwegian Mainland GDP and inflation. We combine the forecasts from three main types of models typically used at central banks: Vector autoregressive models, leading...

We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the...

The paper discusses potential effects of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) on liquidity and monetary policy. CBDC could benefit the payment system but could also pose macroeconomic/financial challenges if demand for CBDC becomes high. High CBDC demand can affect banks' balance sheets,...

The ECB has ended its net purchases of bonds. As a result, the ECB will no longer dampen volatility in the euro area bond markets to the same extent. This may lead to greater volatility in the Danish mortgage bond market. In recent years, banks have reduced their market-making capacity in the...

In this paper we describe the newly developed System for Model Analysis in Real Time (SMART) used for forecasting and model analysis in Norges Bank. While the long-term goal is to include all empirical models used in forecasting in Norges Bank, the emphasis in this paper will be on the empirical...