From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB's strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over-predicted. This low inflation during the years 2013-19 can be attributed to a combination of interconnected factors. Cyclical developments account for a substantial share of the...

We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the...

In this paper we describe Norges Bank's system for averaging models (SAM) which produces model-based density forecasts for Norwegian Mainland GDP and inflation. We combine the forecasts from three main types of models typically used at central banks: Vector autoregressive models, leading...

The article analyses recent developments in business investment for a large group of EU countries, using a broad set of analytical tools and data sources. We find that the assessment of whether or not investment is currently low varies across benchmarks and countries. At the euro area level and...

Following the 'Maidan revolution' of February 2014, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) abandoned the exchange rate peg to the US dollar and switched to a flexible exchange rate, which was later formalised within the framework of the newly adopted inflation targeting regime. Our analysis suggests...

Inflation targeting (IT) has become the dominant monetary policy framework around the world and most of the countries that have adopted it have successfully improved their monetary policy regime. The objective of this paper is to assess WAMZ member countries' readiness to adopt inflation...

Inflation targeting (IT) has become the dominant monetary policy framework around the world and most of the countries that have adopted it have successfully improved their monetary policy regime. The objective of this paper is to assess WAMZ member countries' readiness to adopt inflation...

An increasing number of countries have adopted inflation targeting since New Zealand first adopted this framework in early 1990. Currently there are 21 countries using inflation targeting in every continent of the world. This paper discusses the characteristics of these countries and how the...

Das vorliegende Handbuch soll einen Überblick über die Befragungen des ifo Instituts sowie die daraus resultierenden Konjunkturindikatoren und deren Verwendung für die Prognose volkswirtschaftlicher Kennzahlen liefern. Des Weiteren ist es als Interpretationshilfe für den Umgang mit den...

In this paper, we estimate a potential output model for Finland using an unobserved component model. The model builds on a production function approach, and features price and wage Phillips curves, Okun’s law and several resource-utilization indicators. We show that incorporating...