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On the Purpose of Models - the Norges Bank Experience

Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Nicolaisen, Jon - 2011

Macroeconomic models are important ingredients in the monetary policy process, and, in the Norwegian case, projecting a forward interest rate path. In this paper we argue that when deciding on a model strategy, it is crucial to consider the purpose of models. If the purpose is to understand...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012144011

Learning from tumultuous times: An analysis of vulnerable sectors in international trade in the context of the corona health crisis

Reiter, Oliver; Stehrer, Robert - 2021

into the spotlight. This triggered discussions on resilience and robustness of global value chains. In this paper we assess …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616358

Learning from tumultuous times. an analysis of vulnerable sectors in international trade in the context of the corona health crisis

Reiter, Oliver; Stehrer, Robert - 2021

into the spotlight. This triggered discussions on resilience and robustness of global value chains. In this paper we assess …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012644006

Export performance and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from the WAMZ

Tarawalie, Abu Bakarr; Sissoho, Momodu; Conte, Mohamed; … - 2013

This paper examines the relationship between exchange-rate volatility and export performance in the WAMZ countries … as well as the Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) approach to model the real exchange … rate volatility. In conformity with theoretical considerations, the results indicate that increases in the exchange …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362875

The rapid rise of Russia's wheat exports: Price formation, spot-futures relations and volatility effects

Heigermoser, Maximilian - 2023

physical trade, results in different pricing dynamics on physical and futures markets, and affects futures price volatility by … focusing on realized volatility relations between Black Sea spot and leading futures markets. Here, prices posted at the … intraday seasonally adjusted realized volatility on the CBoT futures market. Further, elevated volatility can be determined in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537588

Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Expectations for Sustainability Analyses

Alho, Juha - 2014

Optimal forecasts are, under a squared error loss, conditional expectations of the unknown future values of interest. When stochastic demographic models are used in macroeconomic analyses, it becomes important to be able to handle updated forecasts. That is, when population development turns out...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037644

Big data: Google-haut ennustavat työttömyyttä Suomessa

Tuhkuri, Joonas - 2014

There are over 3 billion searches globally on Google every day. This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future unemployment rate in Finland. Predicting the present and the near future is of interest, as the official records of the state...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037651

Real-Time Measures of the Output Gap and Fiscal Policy Stance

Virkola, Tuomo - 2014

This paper studies real-time measures of the output gap and fiscal policy stance estimates for EU countries. We construct a comprehensive real-time data set on fiscal forecasts and study whether there are systematic differences between the European Commission and IMF estimates of the output gap...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037657

ETLAnow: A Model for Forecasting with Big Data – Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches in Europe

Tuhkuri, Joonas - 2016

In this report we document the ETLAnow project. ETLAnow is a model for forecasting with big data. At the moment, it …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037674

Google-haut Suomen asuntojen hintojen ennustajana

Widgrén, Joona - 2016

This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future house prices in Finland. Compared to a simple benchmark model, Google searches improve the prediction of the present house price index by 7.5 % measured by mean absolute error. In addition,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037683