We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the...

From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB's strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over-predicted. This low inflation during the years 2013-19 can be attributed to a combination of interconnected factors. Cyclical developments account for a substantial share of the...

This paper looks at fiscal sustainability and fiscal risks from a comprehensive, global perspective. It argues that the benefits of consolidation have to be re-assessed given that industrialised countries have entered uncharted waters with unsustainable public debt dynamics and enormous...

In this paper we describe Norges Bank's system for averaging models (SAM) which produces model-based density forecasts for Norwegian Mainland GDP and inflation. We combine the forecasts from three main types of models typically used at central banks: Vector autoregressive models, leading...

We estimate the long-term natural rate of interest for the euro area with two specifications of a simple semi-structural macroeconomic model. The estimates provide competing interpretations for the euro area’s current economic environment of weak growth, subdued inflation and exceptionally low...

Inflation targeting (IT) has become the dominant monetary policy framework around the world and most of the countries that have adopted it have successfully improved their monetary policy regime. The objective of this paper is to assess WAMZ member countries' readiness to adopt inflation...

This paper reviews the experience of the ECB with the two-tier system for excess reserve remuneration that exempted a portion of banks' excess liquidity (EL) holdings from the negative interest rate of the ECB's deposit facility. The two-tier system aimed to support the bank-based transmission...

Climate change can be a source of financial risk. This paper examines how credit rating agencies accepted by the Eurosystem incorporate climate change risk in their credit ratings. It also analyses how rating agencies disclose their assessments of climate change risks to rating users. The paper...

Inflation targeting (IT) has become the dominant monetary policy framework around the world and most of the countries that have adopted it have successfully improved their monetary policy regime. The objective of this paper is to assess WAMZ member countries' readiness to adopt inflation...

In the low inflation and low interest rate environment that prevailed over the period 2013-2020, many argued that besides expansionary monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy could also support central banks' efforts to bring inflation closer to target. During the pandemic, proper alignment...