We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as a satellite model of a larger DSGE model for the Finnish economy, the Aino 2.0 model. The forecasts produced with the BVAR model can be conditioned on projections of several...

This dissertation focuses on describing and explaining business cycle dynamics. Motivated by the extraordinary strong economic downturn in 2008/2009, it emphasis the importance of modeling nonlinearities. This thesis should be regarded as a contribution to applied econometrics and can be...

This study provides country-specific empirical evidence on the optimal inflation-growth threshold in the WAMZ over the period 1996-2021. Although there is large empirical literature on this subject, however, previous studies on the WAMZ economies generally focused on exogenous approaches of...

This paper provides a summary of current knowledge on inflation persistence and price stickiness in the euro area, based on research findings that have been produced in the context of the Inflation Persistence Network. The main findings are - i) Under the current monetary policy regime, the...

In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed - in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier)....

Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not...

The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into...

While the relationship between inflation and relative price variability (RPV) has been widely investigated in developed and emerging market economies because of its direct relevance to monetary policy implementation, research has neglected this linkage in most developing countries especially in...

Inflation targeting (IT) has become the dominant monetary policy framework around the world and most of the countries that have adopted it have successfully improved their monetary policy regime. The objective of this paper is to assess WAMZ member countries' readiness to adopt inflation...

While the relationship between inflation and relative price variability (RPV) has been widely investigated in developed and emerging market economies because of its direct relevance to monetary policy implementation, research has neglected this linkage in most developing countries especially in...