In this paper we provide an overview of the growth model in China and its prospects, taking a medium-run to long-run perspective. Our main conclusions are as follows. First, the still prevailing producer-biased model of managed capitalism in China tends to engender, as an inherent byproduct,...

There are over 3 billion searches globally on Google every day. This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future unemployment rate in Finland. Predicting the present and the near future is of interest, as the official records of the state...

In this report we document the ETLAnow project. ETLAnow is a model for forecasting with big data. At the moment, it predicts the unemployment rate in the EU-28 countries using Google search data. This document is subject to updates as the ETLAnow project advances.

This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future house prices in Finland. Compared to a simple benchmark model, Google searches improve the prediction of the present house price index by 7.5 % measured by mean absolute error. In addition,...

In the course of the 1990s, the EU has embarked on an ambitious regulatory reform programme for a number of European network industries, such as telecommunications, energy and transport. This paper analyses the potential benefits of successful reforms in these sectors with a focus on the price...

Nur vier Wochen vor dem geplanten Termin im Juni 2012 wurde die bereits vom Herbst 2011 verschobene Eröffnung des Berliner Großflughafens BER abgesagt. Es folgte eine jahrelange Hängepartie aus Ankündigungen, immer neuen Mängellisten und weiteren Verzögerungen. Am 31. Oktober 2020 scheint...

Stefanie Gäbler prepared this study while she was working at the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. The study was completed in March 2020 and accepted as doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics at the University of Munich. It consists of six distinct empirical essays...

Florian Dorn prepared this study during his doctoral studies at the Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich (LMU). The study was completed in September 2020 and accepted as doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics. This dissertation contributes to the empirics of public economics and...

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of...

Die deutschen Großstädte sind aktuell im Wachstumsmodus. Hohe Wanderungssalden aus dem In- und Ausland tragen zu einer positiven Bevölkerungsentwicklung bei. Diese Entwicklung setzt sich auch in der Zukunft fort. Die in diesem Beitrag vorgestellten stochastischen Bevölkerungsprognosen für...