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This dissertation focuses on describing and explaining business cycle dynamics. Motivated by the extraordinary strong economic downturn in 2008/2009, it emphasis the importance of modeling nonlinearities. This thesis should be regarded as a contribution to applied econometrics and can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012157628
Die Weltwirtschaft ist 2009 zum ersten Mal seit Mitte des vorigen Jahrhunderts nicht gewachsen. Die Wirtschaftsleistung dürfte um 2% zurückgegangen sein, in den Industrieländern um 3,5%. Dies war die Folge der Finanzkrise, sie hat zu einem Einbruch des Welthandels mit Folgen auf alle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379789
This Policy Brief discusses the growth prospects of the Central and Eastern European (CEEC) region following the current economic crisis. It argues that the 'integration model of growth' of the CEEC region was characterised by a very high degree of external liberalisation. In one group of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379790
This paper first reviews a number of stylised facts concerning OECD country business cycles over the past four decades …. In general, the amplitude of business cycles has fallen, driven mainly by declining fluctuations of domestic demand. As a … of increased synchronisation of cycles. The paper then reviews a number of influences on business cycles. The evidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011689904
The present pandemic covid-19 has changed the world in all the dimension of the human life. It has also changed the views of all discipline from individual attitude towards his health to the international trade. The life during the lockdown is an unforgettable experience to almost all in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392743
We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as a satellite model of a larger DSGE model for the Finnish economy, the Aino 2.0 model. The forecasts produced with the BVAR model can be conditioned on projections of several...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013284378
EU countries, by applying several methods to extract cycles. The estimates confirm earlier findings of large medium …-term cycles in credit volumes and house prices. GDP appears to be subject to fluctuations at both business-cycle and medium …-term frequencies, and GDP fluctuations at medium-term frequencies are strongly correlated with cycles in credit and house prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011804708
We have constructed a financial conditions index for Norway (FCIN). The FCIN offers a daily update on Norwegian financial conditions based on data from January 2003 on bank lending rates, bond spreads, the foreign exchange market, the stock market and the housing market. The index is constructed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551613
In the course of the 1990s, the EU has embarked on an ambitious regulatory reform programme for a number of European network industries, such as telecommunications, energy and transport. This paper analyses the potential benefits of successful reforms in these sectors with a focus on the price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606180
Central bank independence is a common feature in advanced economies. Delegation of monetary policy to an independent central bank with a clear mandate for price stability has proven to be successful in keeping a check on inflation and providing a trusted currency. However, it is also a fact that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606272