The writing of this article predates by several months the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the takeover of Credit Suisse which occurred in March 2023. It does not represent the views of the European Central Bank (ECB) and should not be construed as linked to or an advice for the winding down...

Concerns about the impact of the general global uncertainty on economic performance have dominated academic debate in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis leading to huge body of empirical studies on ways of measuring and quantifying countries uncertainty and its impact on GDP,...

One of the important consequences to be drawn from the course of the financial crisis up to now is the insight that more attention must be paid in the future to the factors of liquidity, liquidity management and liquidity protection. That holds true for the protection of the stability of an...

Anhand von Einkommensteuerdaten beleuchten wir erstmals den Markt für Unternehmensverkäufe in den Jahren 2001 bis 2016. Sowohl die Anzahl der Verkäufe als auch die damit erzielten durchschnittlichen Gewinne sind im Zeitverlauf gestiegen. Im Jahr 2016 wurden rund 100.000 Unternehmen verkauft....

This paper describes Norges Bank's micro stress testing framework for assessing the Norwegian banking sector's losses on loans to the non-financial enterprise sector. Using projected macro variables and a stock-flow approach, annual financial statements of every firm in Norway are projected five...

This paper analyses the impact of lending standards for residential real estate (RRE) loans on default rates, using a novel loan-level dataset from the European DataWarehouse (EDW) that covers eight euro area countries. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper is the first to use, for...

This paper provides an overview of stress-testing methodologies in Europe, with a focus on the advancements made by the European Central Bank's Financial Stability Committee Working Group on Stress Testing (WGST). Over a four-year period, the WGST played a pivotal role in refining stress-testing...

Das IW Köln hat im 2. Quartal 2017 den Prognosetest des Zentrums für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) übernommen. Dieses führte seit Anfang 2001 quartalsweise diese Umfrage unter Finanzmarktexperten mit dem Ziel durch, der Öffentlichkeit einen Überblick über die Prognosen der...

Pessimism determines the experts' predictions for the second and third quarter of 2019 which can be inferred from the downward revisions of the experts' forecasts. All in all, more downward revisions than upward revisions can be found in the forecasts indicating that the experts have interpreted...

Pessimism determines the experts' predictions for the last quarter of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, which can be inferred from the downward revisions of the experts' forecasts. More downward revisions than upward revisions indicate that the experts have interpreted the incoming information...